COVID-19 Delayed Hepatitis C Virus Elimination Targets

Reductions in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will prevent achievement of HCV elimination targets in the United States set by World Health Organization (WHO) and US National Academies of Sciences and Engineering (NASEM), according to study results presented at the 2022 Conference for Antiretrovirals and Opportunistic Infections (CROI).

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic decreased HCV treatment in the United States by 30%, and treatment stayed low through the end of 2020. To investigate the impact this decrease may have on the chances of achieving  the WHO/US NASEM target reductions by 2030: reduce HCV incidence by 80%, and reduce HCV mortality by 65% from a 2015 baseline.  

Researchers developed and validated a general population model to simulate HCV transmission in the United States. They then used this model to simulate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HCV incidence and related mortality from 2015 through 2030 under 3 scenarios: (1) no disruption in treatment uptake in 2020 and thereafter; (2) a 1-year reduction in treatment of 30% from 2020; and (3) a 2-year reduction in treatment of 30%, then a return to the status quo.

The researchers estimated that 67,267 new HCV infections occurred in 2015. They found that the 80% incidence reduction target would be missed under all scenarios. They also found that an additional 990 new infections would occur from 2015 to 2020 with a 1-year reduction in treatment and that 1933 would occur from a 2-year reduction. The 65% mortality reduction target would be missed under all scenarios. For example, a 1-year reduction in treatment would results in a relative reduction in mortality of 31%.

“The U.S. was not on track to achieve [HCV] elimination targets pre-pandemic and has fallen further behind during the COVID-19 pandemic,” noted researchers. “Urgent scale-up of HCV diagnosis, treatment, and prevention is required.”

—Ellen Kurek

Reference:

Flores Ortega RE, Hoenig M, Cheema JS, Reau N, Martin N. Modeling impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis C virus elimination in the US. Paper presented at: Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, February 12–16 and 22‑24, 2022; Virtual. Accessed February 21, 2022. https://ww2.aievolution.com/cro2201/index.cfm?do=abs.viewAbs&abs=2549